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The Influence of Biogeographic Diversity, Climate and Wildlife on the Incidence of Tick-Borne Encephalitis in Croatia

Summary

This study examined tick-borne encephalitis cases in Croatia over 17 years to understand what factors influence disease spread. Researchers found that warmer winters lead to more TBE cases, likely because milder temperatures allow tick populations to survive and thrive better. The disease peaks in summer months when people spend more time outdoors, and certain areas of Croatia have much higher infection rates than others based on their geography and wildlife populations.

Background

Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) is a potentially life-threatening central nervous system infection caused by Orthoflavivirus encephalitidis virus, prevalent in eastern, central and northern Europe including Croatia. Croatia exhibits high biogeographic diversity with significant regional variations in TBE endemicity, ranging from endemic hotspots in the continental region to low incidence in Mediterranean and Alpine regions.

Objective

The study aimed to analyze 17 years of TBE seroprevalence and acute case data in correlation with winter temperature, precipitation, and wildlife abundance to identify predictive patterns of TBE incidence in Croatia and determine whether climate factors and animal populations influence disease occurrence.

Results

Of 19,094 patients tested, 4.2% had acute TBE with mean incidence of 1.1/100,000 population, significantly higher in older age groups and males. Continental region showed highest incidence (1.7/100,000) with peak in northern Croatia (3.1/100,000). Moderate negative correlations were found between TBE cases and winter temperatures, rodent abundance, and previous year precipitation. Seasonal pattern peaked in June-July with secondary autumn peak.

Conclusion

The analysis demonstrated that warmer winters are associated with increased TBE incidence in Croatia, and negative correlation exists between forest Apodemus rodent abundance and TBE cases. Continuous long-term monitoring of epidemiological, environmental and meteorological data is essential to define high-risk areas and support evidence-based preventive measures and vaccination strategies.
  • Published in:Viruses,
  • Study Type:Epidemiological Analysis,
  • Source: PMID: 40007021, DOI: 10.3390/v17020266
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