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Climate change impacts on the distribution of valuable Thelephora fungi in China

Summary

This study examines how climate change will affect the distribution of four valuable edible fungi species in China and surrounding regions. Using computer models, researchers predict that warming temperatures will push these fungi northward by 2090, though their habitats may shrink by 2050 under high-emission scenarios. The research suggests that replanting forests with the correct host trees could help protect these economically important fungi from climate change impacts.

Background

Thelephora species are valuable edible ectomycorrhizal fungi in East Asia threatened by overharvesting, climate change, and habitat loss. These fungi have significant economic importance, particularly in southern China where T. ganbajun generates tens of millions of yuan in annual income for local farmers.

Objective

This study aimed to predict current and future distributions of four Thelephora species under climate scenarios SSP2-45 and SSP5-85 for the 2050s and 2090s, identify critical environmental variables affecting their distribution, and evaluate conservation strategies.

Results

Model performance was excellent (AUC = 0.999 for all species). Precipitation of warmest quarter (Bio18), annual precipitation (Bio12), elevation, and isothermality (Bio3) were the primary drivers of distribution. High-emission scenarios predict habitat reduction by 2050 with expansion by 2090. All species show northward migration with greater distances under high-emission scenarios.

Conclusion

Climate change will significantly alter Thelephora distributions through northward habitat shifts. Over 50% of suitable areas lack host vegetation, suggesting conservation strategies should prioritize host plant cultivation and forest restoration to expand fungal habitats and mitigate climate impacts.
  • Published in:iScience,
  • Study Type:Species Distribution Modeling Study,
  • Source: PMID: 41050934, DOI: 10.1016/j.isci.2025.113522
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